A friend in my first year of University had a poster of the picture shown opposite with the caption “Before you make deals abroad be sure that you know what they mean.”  With two days left of the COP15 and ministers arriving I would not be surprised if a “political agreement” which can be written on a piece of paper and signed by the assembled leaders will emerge.  How much such an agreement will mean in practice is questionable.  So more than 70 years on another British Prime Minister may come back from a meeting in Europe, declares that the paper he holds has meaning, that the signatories can be trusted and that disaster has been averted.  Plus cá change.

The link has previously been made by several commentators that addressing climate change is akin to fighting a war.  I think this analogy is apt and if we were to link it specifically to the Second World War I think our leaders are still in the “Appeasement” stage of 1937 to 1939.  They are still hoping that small reasonable action will be sufficient rather than addressing the threat head on.

Successfully addressing both mitigation and adaptation requires an enormous transfer of economic resources away from where the market currently allocates them towards climate change tasks.  This requires intervention by states quite possibly on the scale of fighting total war.  The political ramifications of these actions in a democratic system in “peacetime” are extreme.  Again to use the WWII analogy, to fight the war the UK introduced strict rationing covering food, petrol and clothing and men were conscripted both to fight and to work in strategic industries such as coal mining.  Democracy was also partially suspended.  No general elections were held for a decade between 1935 and 1945.

Are we really serious about the threat climate change represents and the scale of the action required?  Are we ready for the social implications of a worthwhile (i.e. binding) agreement?  Or are we just hoping it will be all over by Christmas?

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